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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|